The UK higher education sector could benefit from the recent change at the top in US politics, a new British Council report has found.
The US is likely to experience a downturn in international student numbers, following the return of Donald Trump to the White House, researchers have found, with the UK expected to experience a rise in inbound international students as a result.
Combined with greater restrictions in Australia and Canada on international students, the UK will likely benefit from the marginal student who otherwise would have studied in another major English-speaking destination country but may now view the UK as the most welcoming among them, the report finds.
In the US, a similar phenomenon occurred during Trump’s first term in office (2017-21), when the number of international enrolments in the country declined on an annual basis every year. On the eve of the Covid-19 pandemic (2019/20), there were more than 50,000 fewer international students in the US than when President Trump took office.
Not all regions will be affected equally, researchers predict. In Trump’s first term, the declines in enrolments were sharpest in students from the Middle East and North Africa, North America and Central America, and Europe. Inbound mobility from some regions grew, including from East Asia, but in nearly every region, the growth in enrolments during Trump’s first term were lower than they have been since he left office in January 2021.
The perception of restrictive attitudes towards students in other English-speaking countries will prove beneficial to the UK, according to the report. The study outlines that we may see the UK’s share of international student enrolments in major host destination markets rise even as the overall number of students enrolling in these markets shrinks.
Other measures are helping, according to the report. Some 60% of UK higher education institutions (HEIs) have expanded their number of programmes over the last three years, boosting the attractiveness of UK education for international students.
While UK student visa issuance contracted sharply through the first three quarters of last year, UCAS data shows a 4.7% upturn in international undergraduate applications for early deadline courses in 2025.
UK HEIs are also offering January intake sessions in greater number. Some 93% of all UK HEIs in a recent BUILA survey, and 64% of surveyed UK HEIs, now accept at least one-fifth of their international student cohorts via January intake.
UK HEIs may further aid their cause in 2025 by making greater investments in recruiting students from smaller markets while building stronger TNE partnerships overseas. In combination, these actions will open new opportunities for UK HEIs in 2025.
Beyond those students opting for the UK over the US, the report also suggested that in 2025 UK HEIs will need to expand their horizons beyond traditional recruitment markets. The
report finds that India may have peaked as a source of outbound students, while in China, a weak economy will continue to fuel rising demand for postgraduate education.
UK HEIs will also need to look at more cost-effective alternatives, especially those in East Asia, where the quality of the higher education offer is perceived to be on the rise.
In contrast to English-speaking competitors, the report finds that the UK will face rising competition from non-traditional host destination markets in East Asia, as well as declining enrolments of students from India – the growth engine of international education in recent years.
Maddalaine Ansell, Director Education at the British Council said: “At a time of increased competition for international students, it is crucial that the UK does everything it can to maintain its position as a global leader in higher education. While our English-speaking competitors might be experiencing challenges, we must not grow complacent. There is work to be done to boost recruitment from a larger number of smaller markets, in making greater investments in TNE, and in continuing ensure that the UK recruits highly qualified international students from across the globe.”
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